Baseball is America’s pastime and betting on baseball games has become a popular way for fans to get even more engaged with the sport. Examining key betting trends can provide useful insights that may help inform wagering decisions. This article takes a deeper dive into some of the most notable baseball betting trends worth knowing.
Home Field Advantage Matters
One of the most fundamental betting trends in baseball is the significance of home field advantage. Numerous studies over the years have shown that home teams win around 54% of MLB games on average.
There are a few factors that contribute to home field advantage in baseball:
- Familiarity with home ballpark dimensions and surface
- Support of the home crowd
- Avoiding travel fatigue from road trips
- Ability to bat last as the home team
When evaluating a game, it is important to give consideration to which team is playing in their home stadium. Home field can be especially crucial in divisional matchups where teams meet repeatedly each season.
Pay Attention to Pitching Matchups
The starting pitcher matchup for any given game has a major influence on the odds and the likely outcome. Statistics show that games tend tend to favor the team with the superior starting pitcher.
Some key points when analyzing pitching matchups:
- Look at ERA, WHIP, BAA and other stats for each starter
- Examine their career stats against the opposing team
- Consider recent outings and form – a pitcher on a hot streak can dominate
- Lefty vs righty pitching matchups may favor one side
Spending time researching the pitching matchups and identifying any clear advantages is key. This data can provide strong insights for assessing the odds.
Monitor Team Trends and Momentum
Baseball is a long season, and team form tends to fluctuate throughout the year based on injuries, trades, standout performances, and other factors. Betting odds and predictions may not fully capture shifts in team strength and momentum.
Be sure to monitor trends like:
- Win/loss runs over last 10-20 games
- New additions/subtractions to roster
- Injuries to key players
- Breakout players getting hot at the plate
Riding a team that is surging with momentum can produce good betting results. Fading teams on significant losing streaks can also be profitable if the odds don’t adequately reflect their struggles.
Underdogs Have Added Value in Baseball
Unlike other major American sports, the favored team wins only around 55-60% of MLB matchups. The league’s structure and number of games make it very hard for dominant teams to emerge. Even cellar dwellers can beat top teams on any given night.
This creates consistent betting value on underdogs, especially in individual game matchups. Situations to target include:
- Home underdogs with +1.5 run line odds
- Underdogs starting an ace pitcher
- Double digit underdogs with high payout odds
- Rivalry games where underdogs may elevate their play
Baseball offers many opportunities to profit by selectively backing undervalued underdogs when the oddsmakers overrate favorites.
Key Situations That Influence Run Scoring
Multiple factors beyond team strength come into play that can affect run scoring on a given day in MLB. Analyzing these situations can identify high or low scoring games.
Ballpark Factors
Certain MLB stadiums favor pitchers while others are hitter friendly. Key elements include:
- Field dimensions like fence height and distance to alleys
- Surface composition influences how balls bounce and carry
- Weather elements like wind patterns and temperatures
Coors Field in Colorado has a reputation as the most hitter friendly park while San Francisco’s Oracle Park is a known pitchers park. Betting totals requires checking ballpark factors.
Scheduling Dynamics
Based on the MLB schedule, some unique situations arise that can impact run scoring:
- Traveling after late night games can tire hitters
- Jet lag when returning from long road trips
- Scheduling day games after night games provides little rest
- Road trips with altitude changes can affect player energy
Checking if teams may be fatigued or dealing with adverse travel is important when betting totals.
Starting Pitcher Workloads
MLB teams closely monitor pitcher workloads today to try avoiding injuries. How deep a starter can go influences run scoring. Full rest often leads to stronger initial innings from starters. Pitchers on short rest may tire faster and leave more innings for bullpens. Recent workload for starter can affect stamina and effectiveness.
Analyzing starting pitcher usage and rest patterns is key for evaluating if fresh or fatigued arms are starting.
MLB Debuts/First Starts
When young prospects make MLB debuts as pitchers, the unknown factor can create high scoring affairs. Hitters have no past experience facing the pitcher’s stuff. Young pitchers may lack command and give up runs at first. Nerves can also affect rookie pitcher’s control and composure.
In contrast, veteran pitchers making a first start with a new team can use experience to excel in debuts.
Day/Night Factors
Research shows MLB teams score more runs during night games versus day games. Reasons include:
- Pitchers often say high seams on balls are easier to grip at night.
- Temperature drops after sundown which can reduce fly ball carry.
- Hitters gain visual benefits from daylight illumination.
As a result, checking if a matchup is scheduled for day or night can assist in evaluating expected runs.
While team strength and talent levels may seem to govern outcomes, many other influential factors come into play when betting on baseball. Developing a sharp eye for spotting and weighing all the situational conditions that can shift game odds is a key to betting success. There is always room for smart baseball fans to profit if they pay close attention to the intricate details.
